A chilling tale from the North Sea serves as a stark reminder of the unexpected risks that can threaten our critical infrastructure. Chris O'Shea, CEO of Centrica, shares a story from his early days in the offshore industry, where an unexploded WWII bomb was discovered near an oil pipeline. This incident underscores the importance of being vigilant and prepared for the unexpected.
But here's where it gets controversial... A recent report by the National Energy System Operator (Neso) highlights an "emerging risk" to the UK's gas supply security. This 50-page document, released on budget day, reveals a potential nightmare scenario: Britain running out of gas if a crucial piece of infrastructure fails at the wrong time. Neso modeled various pathways for gas demand until 2035 and found that, in the event of a prolonged cold spell and the loss of the largest gas infrastructure, supply would fall short of demand across all scenarios in 2030-31.
So, what does this mean for the average household? Emergency measures would initially target factories and power plants, but in extreme cases, households with gas boilers could be affected too. Imagine a cold winter's day with not enough gas to heat everyone's homes. This is a scenario that could have serious political repercussions.
While the report assesses the nightmare scenario as "unlikely," it's not hard to envision how a single big risk could materialize. The most critical piece of infrastructure, the 725-mile Langeled pipeline from Norway, may also be the most vulnerable. The threat is not just WWII remnants but state-sponsored sabotage, a very real concern in today's geopolitical climate.
Security experts are currently focused on the damage caused by ships dragging anchors on undersea telecom cables in the Baltic Sea and elsewhere. We must also remember the 2022 Nord Stream 2 pipeline explosions, which highlight the potential for underwater sabotage. Repairing a disabled Langeled pipeline would be a lengthy process, taking weeks or even months.
Energy Minister Michael Shanks has promised to do "whatever it takes" to ensure secure gas supplies, but the report's suggested "mitigations" are neither quick nor cheap. The UK's "diverse" gas supply sources are actually quite limited: domestic North Sea production, Norwegian pipeline imports, liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports via ship (mainly from Qatar and the US), gas interconnectors to Belgium and the Netherlands, and storage.
The chancellor's decision to maintain the energy profits levy until 2030 may accelerate the decline of UK production. Norway may be at its supply limit to Britain. LNG import terminals are expensive, and expanding interconnector capacity takes time. Centrica isn't injecting gas into its Rough offshore storage facility this winter due to a lack of financial support from the government.
Shanks's remarks about "redoubling efforts to decarbonize" are largely irrelevant in this context. Even the government's Clean Power 2030 plan retains the current 35 gigawatts of gas power generating capacity as a backup during cold, windless periods when renewable sources are less reliable.
An "emerging risk" grows larger the longer it's left unaddressed. While this report is a welcome first of its kind, it's disheartening that the facts it presents have been ignored by successive governments for years. Now, there's a non-negligible risk of a serious gas crisis in the next five years. This report deserves attention and action, not burial on budget day.
